Structure and growth
Population pyramids
A population pyramid shows the age and sex structure of a country, with males on one side, females on the other, and age groups going up.
- Pakistan's pyramid has a wide base and narrows quickly: a large proportion of children and young people (about a third under 15, and about 60% under 30). This shows high birth rates and fast growth.
- Changes over time: the base is slowly narrowing as the birth rate begins to fall and life expectancy rises, so the proportion of older people is increasing.
Effects of the present and projected structures
| Effects | Detail |
|---|---|
| a high dependency ratio | many children (and older people) depend on the working-age adults, and so need schools, health care, food and housing |
| a large labour force in future | a "youth bulge": potential for growth if there are jobs and skills; otherwise unemployment, poverty and unrest |
| pressure on services and resources | schools, hospitals, housing, water, power, food and jobs |
| an ageing population later | more pensions and health costs |
Birth rates, death rates and natural increase
- Birth rate (births per 1,000 people per year) in Pakistan is high (roughly 28 per 1,000, and falling slowly); the death rate has fallen sharply (roughly 7 per 1,000) because of better health care, vaccination, food and water. The gap, the natural increase (birth rate minus death rate, expressed as a percentage), is about 2% a year.
- Trends: the population has grown rapidly (about 34 million in 1947 to over 240 million in the 2023 census). It is among the top five countries in the world by population. Growth is slowing but remains high.
Factors that contribute to population growth
| Factor | How it contributes |
|---|---|
| Social | early marriage, a preference for large families and for sons, extended families, religious and cultural attitudes towards family planning |
| Educational | low literacy, especially among women, which means less awareness of family planning |
| Economic | children are seen as workers and as support in old age; poverty (high infant mortality encourages more births) |
| Political | weak or inconsistent family planning policy; limited health and welfare programmes |
| Declining death rate | better medicine and food, so more survive |
Other reasons often given: Afghan refugees added to the population; children work on farms and in cottage industries; families in villages want many workers; and some people believe that family size is God's decision.
Problems for development, sustainability and solutions
Problems: more demand for food, water, housing, schools, jobs and power than is available; unemployment; pressure on cities (slums and traffic); environmental damage (deforestation, pollution, water shortage); a lower income per head.
Is it sustainable? At present rates, resources and services cannot keep up, which makes the current growth unsustainable unless it slows and the economy grows faster.
Solutions: family planning and health services, female education and jobs for women, raising the age of marriage, reducing infant mortality, economic growth and job creation, information campaigns, involving religious leaders (for example, scholars explaining that child spacing is allowed in Islam), and the work of NGOs.
Movements of population
Causes: push and pull factors
| Push factors (reasons for leaving) | Pull factors (reasons for going) | |
|---|---|---|
| Rural–urban migration | poverty, lack of jobs, small farms, poor services, drought and floods | jobs, higher wages, schools, hospitals, bright lights |
| Seasonal migration | no work in the slack season; cold in the mountains (winter) | harvest work (cotton picking), construction |
| Emigration | unemployment, low pay, insecurity | better pay in the Gulf, UK, USA and elsewhere; family links; remittances |
| Immigration (including refugees) | war and persecution (for example in Afghanistan), disasters | safety, relatives, work, and aid |
Effects of movements
- In cities: shanty towns (katchi abadis) with poor housing, no clean water or sanitation; overcrowding, traffic and crime; pressure on services and jobs; and the growth of the informal sector.
- Refugees: tent cities and camps (for Afghan refugees in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, and after floods and earthquakes); strain on local resources, competition for jobs, but also labour and trade.
- In rural areas: depopulation, loss of young workers, fewer farm workers, elderly people left behind; but remittances raise incomes.
Measures to solve the problems
Self-help schemes (people build their own homes with materials and training, such as the Orangi Pilot Project in Karachi); provision of clean water, sanitation, electricity, schools and health in the katchi abadis; regularising land ownership; rural development (jobs, services, small industries) to reduce the push; new towns and planned housing; better transport. Poor housing and services are adverse effects that must be tackled.
Distribution and density
Definitions
- Distribution: where people live: the pattern of settlement (clustered or scattered).
- Density: how many people live in a unit of area, usually persons per km² (population ÷ area).
Variations
- Between provinces: the Punjab has the highest density (and about half of the population); Sindh is next (very high around Karachi and Hyderabad, low in the Thar); Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is medium (high in the Peshawar valley, low in the mountains); Balochistan has the lowest density (the largest province by area but with only a small share of the population); Gilgit–Baltistan and Azad Kashmir are sparsely populated in the mountains.
- Within provinces: the canal-irrigated Central Punjab and cities are dense; the Cholistan and Thal deserts and Salt Range are sparse.
Factors that explain the variations
| Type | Factors |
|---|---|
| Physical | relief (flat plains are dense; mountains and plateaux are sparse), climate and water (rain or irrigation supports farming; deserts are empty), fertile alluvial soils |
| Economic | jobs in industry and services in cities (Karachi, Lahore, Faisalabad), agriculture in canal areas; minerals and ports |
| Social | historic settlement and facilities (schools, hospitals), tribal and family patterns |
| Political | government investment and policies (canal colonies, new towns, roads), conflict and security |
Employment
Primary, secondary and tertiary occupations
| Meaning | Examples | |
|---|---|---|
| Primary | getting raw materials from nature | farming, fishing, mining, forestry |
| Secondary | making things | factory work, construction, manufacturing, power |
| Tertiary | services | teaching, nursing, banking, transport, shopkeeping, government |
The workforce. Roughly 35–40% work in primary (mainly agriculture), about 20–25% in secondary industry and construction, and about 35–40% in tertiary services. Over time agriculture's share has fallen and services' share has risen as the economy changes and people move to towns.
Unemployment and underemployment
- Underemployment means that people work less than they could or would like to (for example seasonal farm workers, or part-time workers who want full-time jobs).
- Causes (rural): seasonal farming, small and fragmented farms, mechanisation, few other jobs. Causes (urban): rural migrants arriving faster than jobs are created, slow industrial growth, power cuts, a skills mismatch (education does not fit the jobs), and recession.
- Problems for development: wasted human resources, low incomes and poverty, lower GDP and GNP (less output), crime and unrest, and brain drain (educated people leave).
Skilled and manual labour
Pakistan has a huge supply of manual and unskilled labour but a shortage of skilled workers (engineers, doctors, managers, technicians) because of limited education and training, and many skilled people emigrate (brain drain). Skills shortages hold back industry and services.
Literacy, education and training
Literacy is about 60% (lower for women and in rural areas). Education and training for both males and females, in rural and urban areas, increase skills and productivity, raise incomes, reduce population growth (educated women have fewer children) and improve health and development. The government's aim is to expand schools, technical and vocational training, and adult literacy, but funding and access are problems, especially for girls in rural areas.
Outline. Seasonal nature of farming; small, fragmented farms with more workers than needed; mechanisation; lack of non-farm jobs in villages; low education. Effect: low incomes and migration to the cities.